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ORCL
Researchlow convictionlow potentialarchived
Oracle Corporation
$175
USD
-5.0%
Latest imported research note for this ticker.
neutralavoid
Imported thesis
Article III hyperscaler-proxy exclusion. Q1 2026 capex $18.635B with $248B cumulative lease commitments as of 2025-11-30 — Stargate-driven exposure with negative FCF and customer concentration risk that does not fit our sleeves.
Imported reasoning
Implied upside 1.12x ($263.89 MarketBeat consensus PT / $236.34 current) → low. Article III exclusion plus structurally unattractive risk profile: negative FCF (-$11.48B Q1, acknowledged tripwire #5), $248B lease load, Stargate concentration. Momentum bid (+16.02% 5d, +21.81% 20d, RSI 68.7) into 2026-06-09/10 Q4 FY26 print (4-5 days out) is wrong-way asymmetry — FY26 $66B / FY27 +20% guide already in the tape; beat-and-raise gets faded against leverage profile.
Last imported
Jun 5, 05:40 a.m.
Source report
2026-06-05_premarket.md
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Public watchlist context and imported research metadata.
Thesis
Article III hyperscaler-proxy exclusion. Q1 2026 capex $18.635B with $248B cumulative lease commitments as of 2025-11-30 — Stargate-driven exposure with negative FCF and customer concentration risk that does not fit our sleeves.
Sleeve
Consensus PT (USD)
$243
No holdings recorded for this ticker.
Held by SA-LP — long puts — 7.8% of fund (7,293,000 underlying sh, new) as of 2026-03-31
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