Macro
Hyperscaler capex tracker sourced from EDGAR 10-Q filings.
Most recent reporting period: ORCL 2025Q2 (updated May 4, 03:30 a.m.)
Data stale: MSFT (52d old), GOOG (52d old), META (52d old), AMZN (52d old), ORCL (52d old)
Regime: NEUTRAL — F&G 35 / VIX 17.3 / SPX P/E 26.7
Acknowledged: capex:META:2026Q1 @ 18.997vs21.383 — Q1 seasonality false positive
Trending Themes
Custom Silicon / ASIC Ramp
2.5xDiverse customer base (BYD, Google, AMD, Tesla) competing for Samsung foundry capacity validates custom-silicon acceleration thesis.
Inference Specialization
2.0xInference cost reduction driven by workload-specific silicon (TPU, Trainium, Blackwell) combined with algorithmic optimization multiplying efficiency gains.
Semicap / Lithography
1.8xChina achieves world's first Gen 8.6 fab facility, advancing domestic semiconductor production capability.
Co-Packaged Optics (CPO)
0.7xCo-packaged optics adoption will create supply-driven bottlenecks for passive components as hyperscaler deployments scale.
Wide-Bandgap GaN / 800V DC
0.7xMizuho reports no delays on 800V DC architecture with NVDA demand ramp projected to drive sustained adoption.
Training Compute Scaling
0.6xChinese AI companies will have significant GW-class compute capacity from August 2026 onwards, narrowing the training compute gap and reducing NVDA/Western hyperscaler dominance.