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NBIS
Researchmedium convictionmedium potential
Nebius Group
$219
USD
-0.4%
wait
Q1 print confirmed >3.5GW contracted + $7-9B FY26 ARR guide, but spot $223 sits 14-20% above Pharos Forward-Arch entry gate $185-$195 — wait for pullback.
May 28, 07:24 a.m.
Q2 2026 earnings blowout: revenue $582.3M (+454% YoY, beat $570.7M est), adjusted EBITDA $236.2M vs $168.9M est. CEO raised year-end contracted power target to 5 GW; stock surged ~29% post-print. Consensus PT $262.91-$278.70. Gate reset evaluate warranted given step-change fundamentals vs prior $185-195 gate.
Aug 13, 05:32 a.m.Source: 2026-08-13_premarket.mdConsensus PT: $272
Latest imported research note for this ticker.
longwatchbabyfolio
Imported thesis
Nebius is a pure-play neocloud/AI infrastructure compounder; Q2 2026 beat (EPS -$0.12 vs -$0.82 est, revenue $582.3M vs $569.9M est) and permitting progress de-risk the build-out thesis.
Imported reasoning
FCF tripwire breach (AMZN fcf=-8.82B, GOOG fcf=-5.86B, ORCL fcf=-1.87B in Q2 2026) blocks buy_candidate. NBIS is also in Forward-Architecture bench with original gate $185–$195; current $220.11 is 12–16% above gate after a 34% post-Q2 run. Near-term upside: Citigroup street-high $287 / $220 = 1.30x — below the 2x threshold mapping to 'low' by the strict formula. Deviation: forward-arch category typical is 'high'; settling at 'medium' because $287 provides meaningful room above consensus $231 and permitting resolution is a discrete catalyst for further re-rating. Q2 results warrant a gate-reset via dedicated evaluate run.
Last imported
Aug 21, 01:33 a.m.
Source report
2026-08-21_premarket.md
Private trigger details hidden
Research and watchlist context are visible. Trigger levels and other private portfolio fields remain hidden.
Public watchlist context and imported research metadata.
Thesis
Nebius is a pure-play neocloud/AI infrastructure compounder; Q2 2026 beat (EPS -$0.12 vs -$0.82 est, revenue $582.3M vs $569.9M est) and permitting progress de-risk the build-out thesis.
Sleeve
Consensus PT (USD)
$272
No holdings recorded for this ticker.
Held by SA-LP — 6.1% of fund (4,464,260 sh, new) as of 2026-06-30
@babyfolio
20 mentions · 15 bullish / 3 bearish
Aug 19bullishlowSource ↗

Author asserts NBIS has higher upside potential relative to competing infrastructure-investment alternatives.

Aug 19bullishhighSource ↗

NBIS raises $5B in convertible debt on favorable terms (0.5%-4.5%, 40-45% premiums, upsized from $4.5B target).

Aug 19bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS capital strategy prioritizes productive AI-infrastructure capacity expansion, differentiating it from speculative holdings.

Aug 18bullishlowSource ↗

Positive signal on NBIS amid market sentiment questions.

Aug 19bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS management executing successfully on datacenter permitting and buildout, validating execution capability and demand.

Aug 17neutralmediumSource ↗

Regulatory approvals are immaterial to NBIS core infrastructure fundamentals and deployment timeline

Aug 18bullishmediumSource ↗

Vineland data center approval enables significant deployment capacity for NBIS infrastructure expansion

Aug 14bullishmediumSource ↗

Comprehensive Nebius Q2 earnings analysis covering next-year projections; recommended as must-read for investors

Aug 14bearishlowSource ↗

Shorted Nebius at $240 (regretful tone suggests position went against expectation)

Aug 15bullishmediumSource ↗

Market performance confirms NBIS is outperforming IREN; both will perform well but NBIS is expected to outpace competitor.

Aug 15bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS demonstrated superior investment performance relative to IREN, justifying position reallocation in early 2026.

Aug 12bullishhighSource ↗

Expressed extreme conviction in NBIS through 100% portfolio allocation with zero cash.

Aug 12bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS earnings review and updated price targets expected to be significant; bullish outlook.

Aug 12bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS stock movement driven by fundamentals rather than short squeeze dynamics; shorts have increased rather than covered.

Aug 13bullishmediumSource ↗

DataOne's infrastructure development role for NBIS's Vineland flagship campus validates operational fundamentals and capital efficiency of the neoclould deployment model.

Aug 11neutralobservationSource ↗

Upcoming Nebius earnings tomorrow anticipated to provide additional market-relevant signals.

Aug 12bullishmediumSource ↗

Michael Burry's short position in NBIS moved into loss territory, reflecting material stock appreciation.

Aug 11bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS management background, execution track record, and shareholder alignment present multiple positive catalysts

Aug 6bearishhighSource ↗

Michael Burry has taken a short position on NBIS.

Aug 6bearishmediumSource ↗

NBIS exhibits high beta and strong year-to-date performance in the neocloud space, supporting a bearish thesis.

@aleabitoreddit
2 mentions · 1 bullish / 1 bearish
Aug 18bullishmediumSource ↗

NBIS neocloud datacenter operator showing strong demand aligned with broader AI infrastructure thesis.

Aug 8bearishmediumSource ↗

NBIS short thesis hinges on examining hyperscaler AI cloud demand, backlog, and margin expansion trends.

@ParadisLabs
3 mentions · 2 bullish / 0 bearish
Aug 17bullishmediumSource ↗

GPU fleet contracts show strong unit economics with 1.8-year payback at $20-25M ACV per MW

Aug 11bullishmediumSource ↗

Michael Burry's short position in NBIS has turned into a loss, indicating significant stock appreciation.

Aug 11neutralobservationSource ↗

Nebius stock exhibits higher volatility than memory names during earnings releases.